PJ goes for second Mercury Music Prize; can a dark horse upset in proposition betting?

mercury-prizeSeptember 6th will see the awarding of the 19th annual Mercury Music Prize, bestowed upon the individual performer or group from the UK or Ireland who released the best album of the preceding year. Nominees and winners are chosen by industry professionals, and acts from all genres of music are considered.

Though Wikipedia claims that the prize “has a reputation for being awarded to outside chances rather than the favourites,” true upset victories have proven in fact just about as rare in this competition as in any award show. In the past 10 years, only two stunners have gone down, with Ms. Dynamite beating out a tough field which included David Bowie in 2002 and the Klaxons taking the prize most had booked for Amy Winehouse in 2007.

Last year’s Mercury winners were The xx, who started at 7/2 odds at bookmakers. The point? It’s worth checking out the odds on the Mercury Music Prize at sportsbook websites – So let’s do so!
Below runs the list of candidates with odds in “outright winner” proposition bets averaged from UK-based bookmakers Paddy Power, William Hill, and Ladbrokes.

PJ Harvey, Let England Shake: 11/8
Anna Calvi, self-titled: 14/3
James Blake, self-titled: 6/1
Adele, 21: 20/3
Metronomy, The English Riviera: 9/1
Ghostpoet, Peanut Butter Blues & Melancholy Jam: 28/3
Katy B, On A Mission: 50/3
King Creosote and Jon Hopkins, Diamond Mine: 22/1
Everything, Man Alive: 23/1
Tinie Tempah, Disc-Overy: 31/1
Elbow, Build a Rocket Boys!: 33/1
Gwilym Simcock: Good Days at Schloss Elmau: 50/1

Even if you believe in the shaky myth of the Mercury Music Prize darkhorse, punters and speculators can immediately eliminate the bottom, say, the bottom five. With the exception of Everything’s 16/1 at Paddy Power, all of these albums are getting 20/1 odds or longer at all three sportsbooks. Perhaps the somebody’s trying to tell you something. Remember, as LiveBetsDirect always says: Bookmakers have more to lose on a given proposition bet than anyone: The bookies *must* get the odds right in the name of profit!

At an aggregate 11/8, PJ Harvey naturally leads the pack; only the margin is surprising. The 2011 nod will mark her fourth nomination for the Mercury and she took the prize in 2001 for her “Stories from the City, Stories from the Sea.”

At least four years went into “Let England Shake,” and quite a few critics have billed the work from she who was once given the no. 1 spot in Q Magazine’s “100 Greatest Women in Rock Music” as one of her all-time best, and she was probably the odds-on favorite the millisecond after “Let England Shake” was first performed. Yes, Harvey is the safe bet, but not necessarily the most interesting.

Anna Calvi and James Blake will certainly get some play from the punters. And Calvi’s debut effort, with a little help from her big-league friends Brian Eno and Rob Ellis, is certainly a strong contender to pull off the upset. From a competitive standpoint, one should take pause at Calvi’s loss in the BBC “Sound of 2011” aggrandizement. On the other hand, any act which makes it big through YouTube (with the “Attic Sessions” videos; see directly below) is generally not to be trifled with.

The electronic stylings of Blake, meanwhile, were enough to win him second place in the aforementioned “Sound of 2011” poll; jumpstarted by the utterly infectious “Limit to Your Love,” “James Blake” the album was an international success that hit the top 40 in eight countries and the top 10 in six. His distinctive, standout style would surely seem to work well for him in contests such as this (again, refer to “Sounds of 2011”) and makes a good underdog to back.

Finally – and this is the one LiveBetsDirect really don’t get – Adele is down there at a cumulative 20/3 to win this “Mercury Music” thing resulting from a bunch of 6/1s and 7/1s. Now, is this just a case of bad timing on the powerful Adele’s part? According to this writer’s absolutely subjective experience, the songwriter-songstress dominated U.S., Spanish and Hungarian rock radio in 2011 with the songs of “21,” an awe-inspiring mixture of several American forms blending with her own signature style.

The relevant hometown statistics tell us that the holding of the no. 1 spot on the record charts in the U.K. for 11 weeks puts Adele in a class with Madonna and Bob Marley – unfortunately for her, she peaked in April and, you know, attention spans are so short and burnout so quick these damn days…
Grumpy old dude? Me? Maybe, but a happy one knowing people are still actually buying records somewhere.

U.S. Republican Party presidential nomination odds (or Really, America? Rick Perry?)

This writer just returned from a three-week sojourn in the United States and came away horrified; no, not at the garish and ubiquitous juxtaposition of conspicuous consumption with surface worries about the current economic situation, but instead because of the realization that Texas governor Rick Perry could well upend sitting president Barack Obama in the next U.S. election. Read more...

Prince William & Kate Middleton: Betting on a Royal Wedding

Prince William and Kate MiddletonAfter nine years of dating, Prince William of Britain and fiancée Kate Middleton announced in mid-November that they’d finally be making it official with a royal wedding; just seven days passed before the announcement of an exact date and venue for the ceremony. The date has been set for next April 29 and will take place at Westminster Abbey, host to many a momentous occasion including the former Princess Diana’s funeral in 1997.

Even before the date became official, however, oddsmakers at bet365 had posted a handful of intriguing proposition bets regarding the happy couple’s big day – or perhaps that should be “the happy couple’s big night,” as bet365 seems slightly obsessed with the pair’s reproductive potential. Read more...

Sanity and order reign on Dancing With The Stars, Jennifer Grey wins

Justice, though predictable, was serving on Dancing with the Stars last night. Congratulations therefore go out to Jennifer Grey, her partner and now-threepeat champion dancer Derek Hough, and all those punters who backed the Dirty Dancer.

Surely no one who backed Grey financially will complain about a small win – a W’s a W, as they say in sports land – but hopefully you were among those who covered the victor as early as possible into the season 11 run, as she started the finale Monday night at 4/9 odds.

Runner-up was Kyle Massey and Bristol Palin finished third, implying that any sort of electoral trickery in electronic voting was overcome like the ruptured disc in Grey’s back. One wonders what will come of Ms. Bristol, though it would be shocking if Grey didn’t parlay her win into some sort of turn in the limelight in 2011.

Dancing with the Stars finale: Favorite Jennifer Grey wows all; popular vote results to come

Dancing with the Stars retro logoThe finale dances were done last night on American TV and, since LiveBetsDirect can’t possibly top the lightning-quick review of the penultimate episode of “Dancing with the Stars” appearing in the first paragraph in the Kansas City Star’s take, LBD’ll just go straight to the quote machine:

“The first night of the two-night finale of ‘Dancing With the Stars’ ended up pretty much the way the entire season has gone: Jennifer Grey on top, Bristol Palin on the bottom and Kyle Massey in the middle of the pack.”

So it seems that bet365 will face the dreaded prospect of the favorite winning thus big payouts – at least insofar as the DWTS judges are concerned. Fortunately for the online sportsbook, Grey has been getting short odds throughout season 11 and entered last night’s final at 4/9, a fitting line for one who has performed “like a juggernaut” in the words of head judge Len Goodman. Read more...

Dancing with the Stars finale: Will Election 2000 pale in comparison?

bristol-palin-dwtsMore than one observer decried massive voting improprieties in Election 2000 – many, too, though these mainly went ignored, raised similar cries in 2004 – but could Republican dirty ballot-stuffing tricks have extended into “Dancing with the Stars”?

Tonight marks the close to the top-rated American show’s 11th season – and by far its most controversial – as the three remaining contestants and their professional dance partners go at it to determine twinkletoed supremacy … or perhaps just the U.S.’ current political barometer.

Bet365’s second-favorite to take the contest at a reasonable 3/1 is Bristol Palin, daughter of 2008 vice-presidential candidate and LiveBetsDirect pinup-girl favorite Sarah Palin. While Bristol and dance partner Mark Ballas have continuously scored the lowest marks from judges, the popular vote has repeatedly been in Palin’s favor, thus pushing her past former favorites like Kurt Warner and Brandy. Read more...

Miss World 2010: Results are in, LBD juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust covers self

Miss World: Alexandria Mills

Miss World: Alexandria Mills

The Miss World 2010 title was awarded in China on Saturday night and once again the bookmakers and punters were stymied by an underdog winner and some surprising top-five finishers. Meanwhile, those following LiveBetsDirect’s advice came out a sliver ahead – with enough profit for a beer or two.

Competition winner was Miss USA, Alexandria Mills. Mills started the competition at bet365 online bookmaker as a 20/1 longshot, about as far out as you’ll ever see an American girl at top-level contests.

Finishing second and third, respectively, were Miss Botswana Emma Wareus (who was second-favorite at bet365 with 15/2 odds to win outright) and Miss Venezuela Adriana Vasini (22/1). Miss Ireland Emma Waldron (16/1) and Miss China Tang Xiao (75/1).

All in all, the top five wasn’t *too* surprising, ultimately. Venezuela is tied for most Miss World titles all-time, China has enjoyed recent success in the competition plus home-field advantage this year, and the USA always manages to contend. Read more...

Running the rascals out in Denmark

The incumbent: Lars Løkke Rasmussen

The incumbent: Lars Løkke Rasmussen

LiveBetsDirect is no expert on parliamentary politics in Denmark, but judging by bet365 online sportsbook’s proposition bet on the next Danish prime minister, one tendency is pointedly clear: As in most countries from the Obamanation on down, voters are fed up with the rascals in office.

Head rascal in Denmark is currently Lars Løkke Rasmussen. Rasmussen has only been in the hot seat for less than 18 months, having succeeded to the chair when former prime minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen (no relation) was named NATO secretary-general. Lars Løkke Rasmussen had also served in Danish parliament for 16 years, representing the “center-right Liberal party” – hey, that’s European politics – Venstre. Read more...

McCoy vs. McDowell for BBC Sports Personality of the Year

So strictly speaking, the “BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2010” outright winner proposition bet offered at bet365 online sportsbook isn’t a non-sport wager, but is anything involving the BBC properly called anything but “entertainment”? LBD thinks not. Read more...

Betting on Miss World 2010 (Oh yeah, we got yer pictures and videos)

Manasvi Mamgai, Miss India

Manasvi Mamgai, Miss India

Once again, it’s just about time for the Miss World beauty pageant, truly one of the greatest endeavors mankind has ever produced – after all, what other activity combines socially-acceptable ogling of exotic women coupled with opportunities to wager?

Bet365 online sportsbook’s odds for this year imply that this contest isn’t going to be much of a contest, which three ladies running well ahead of the pack early. Indeed, said top three – Manasvi Mamgai, Miss India; Emma Wareus, Miss Botswana; and Kamilla Salgado, Miss Brazil – have shorter or equal odds to win the 2010 Miss World crown than 86 of the 121 competitors (or more than 70% of the field) are getting to place in the top five. Read more...