Bats, vamps and ‘dogs: Betting the 2009 MTV Movie Awards
The Academy Awards are just so passé these days anyway … from movie award show junkies and entertainment futures speculators, praise is surely forthcoming for Sunday night’s 2009 MTV Movie Awards – not to mention the kudos due BetUS.com for its wide range of proposition bets offered.
With all categories available for betting action, Live Bets Direct will today consider the biggie, i.e. the “Best Movie” prop bet. And the nominees are:
The Dark Knight: 1/1
Twilight: 9/4
Slumdog Millionaire: 9/4
Iron Man: 5/1
High School Musical 3: 6/1
As with all such programs, the chaff can immediately be separated from the good stuff. In this case, Iron Man and High School Musical 3 will clearly make for by-products at the 2009 MTV Movie Awards. In five of the other six major categories, either “Dark Knight” or “Twilight” is the favorite: Best Female Performance (Kristen Stewart, a 5/6 favorite at BetUS); Best Male Performance (Christian Bale); Best Villian (duh); Best Kiss (Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson); and Best Fight (with both Twilight’s “Vampire Showdown” scene and “Battle Over Gotham” going off at 2/1 odds).
Meanwhile, the betting momentum is all on Bruce Wayne’s side. At the beginning of the week, “The Dark Knight” held a slim lead over “Twilight” on the table, with 3/2 given on the former at BetUS and 2/1 on the latter. Those who got in on “The Dark Knight” at a 50% higher rate are feeling pretty good right now, while the drop by “Twilight,” the freshest film from among the nominees, was oddly precipitous.
So what chance does a chai wallah have over a pair of winged nocturnal creatures? Despite its reputation as an, ahem, populist’s award, the Oscar and whatever they call the MTV Movie Award trophy, have actually seen eye-to-eye on three occasions: “Lord of the Rings III,” “Gladiator,” and “Titanic” (duh).
“Slumdog Millionaire” could well be MTV’s first “Chariots of Fire,” earning the upset from a predicted third-place finish. How? Because of split voting, just like Academy Awards 1981. Look: Figure the chick-flick loyalists are voting for “Twilight.” The guy action-flick fans will mostly be going “Dark Knight,” though many a comic book geek could cast a ballot for Iron Man, which many hardcores insist is actually a better film than the Caped Crusader’s.
Now figure in a few voters willing to take voting for the MTV Movie Awards seriously enough to reconsider a film that might have been missed the first time ‘round. Re-viewings of “Slumdog Millionaire” can only help the charming tale.
Think this is just blowing smoke? Perhaps, but the truth is the odds are shortening rapidly on the ‘Dog, having fallen from 4/1 to its present 9/4 in just two weeks. While now, the smartest money is probably best put on “The Dark Knight,” “Slumdog Millionaire” at 9/4 odds may be worth your consideration.
Because maybe (D) It is written.

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