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Benedict XVI, he of the dark past

Sure, Pope Benedict XVI is all right now after doctors announced that a cast on the padre’s arm had been removed and the dislocated bones completely healed, but that won’t stop punters from ponying up on Herr Ratzinger’s successor. Indeed, Paddy Power has recorded quite a run on betting on its nearly-perpetual “Who Will Be The Next Pope?” proposition bet.

Well, hey, why not? After all, the worst thing that can happen to an outgoing pope is his Eternal Reward, right? So why shouldn’t the living be allowed to make a few bucks on the earthly historical event of papal succession? (Remember that not one passage of Torah, Koran or Bible declaims gambling as a sin.)

Taking a lot at the viable contenders, Live Bets Direct reckons the following would-be papabili are worthy of your monetary consideration (asterisk indicates the candidate had more-or-less official papabile status after the death of John Paul II in 2005, i.e. was considered a viable possibility for Vatican leadership then).

DiNardo in 2011: Howdy, y'all! I'm the new pope!

Francis Arinze* (Nigeria): 5/1
Cardinal Angelo Scola* (Venice), Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga* (Honduras): 7/1
Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco (Italy): 8/1
Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone* (Italy), Dionigi Tettamanzi* (Italy): 10/1
Archbishop Piero Marini (Italy): 12/1
Daniel DiNardo (Galveston-Houston, USA): 18/1
Jaime Lucas Ortega y Alamino* (Cuba): 20/1
Cardinal Renato Martino (Italy), Cardinal Ruini (Italy), Cardinal Attilio Nicora (Roman Curia): 20/1
Angelo Sodano* (Italy): 25/1
Giovanni Battista Re* (Italy): 40/1

And if you think this list is heavy on the Italians, you’re right. Look, folks, the truth is that for 455 years – from Adrian VI (served as pope 1522-1523) to the election of John Paul II in 1978 – the pope was Italian. Twenty-first century or no, the odds of non-Italian popes back-to-back are simply off the charts. Adding a third is not exactly outside the realm of possibility, but it ain’t extremely likely.

Thus the inclusion of guys like Francis Arinze and Oscar Rodriguez Maradiga. The former makes an especially compelling case for yet another non-Italian with compelling achievements such as his status as youngest bishop on the planet when ordained (he was 32 in August 1965), a position as the first native African to be named bishop of his diocese, and his attendance at the Second Ecumenical Council of the Vatican, a.k.a. Vatican II.

With far less of a chance than his 7/1 odds might reflect is Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras, who seems okay on the surface with his Latin American background – rumors swirled at the *last* papal enclave that the next pope would be representing a Third World nation – but this bishop may have sealed his own fate way back in 2002.

Declared Maradiaga then: “It gave me considerable food for thought that, at a time of total media focus on developments in the Middle East with all the injustices being perpetrated against the Palestinian people, U.S. television and press people were obsessed with sex scandals of 30 or 40 years ago.” This was rapidly taken offense at by the Anti-Defamation League and other groups and blossomed through the media to paint a portrait of Maradiaga as anti-Semite conspiracist. While few Jewish folks will be taking part in the next papal enclave, the church has proven quite PR sensitive in the past two decades and so surely won’t risk stuff like this bubbling up again. Then again, wasn’t Benedict’s pre-Pope history a bit shaky vis-à-vis Judeo-Christian relations…?

For dark horses, Live Bets likes Mister DiNardo and Signori Re. As both an electoral politics junkie and a lapsed Catholic, this prognosticator is dead certain an African and/or a US clergyman will become pope in my lifetime; it is said that 70 percent of all money in the Vatican is American and with a growing schism with the American Catholic church as a more liberal lot starts to rethink things on birth control and women’s rights, election of a Yank papa might serve as calculated risk to bring the richest nation more fully back into the fold. Next time doesn’t seem extremely likely, but Barack Obama seemed a bit ahead of his time as well.

Finally, there’s Giovanni Battista Re, typically considered one of the most powerful men in the Vatican (whatever position he holds) for two decades now and has been a Roman Curia member since 1963. So why hasn’t he already ascended to the big chair? Simple: His perceived liberalism. This was mostly famously demonstrated in 2006 when he refused to excommunicate Roman Catholics involved in America’s Planned Parenthood organization.

Re has surely made a few enemies with the Vatican, but should a snap decision be necessary, he might just prove to be a “go-to” personality guy – and he’s “only” 65 this year, relatively young for the bunch considered strong contenders.

Other options to punt on at Paddy Power include the following.

Yo (Pope) Adrian!

Count Christoph von Schoenborn (Austria): 10/1
Cardinal Francisco Javier Errazuriz Ossa* (Chile), Claudio Hummes* (Brazil): 14/1
Cardinal Marc Ouellet* (Canada): 18/1
Cardinal Karl Lehmann (Germany), Jose Da Cruz Policar (Portugal), Wilfred Napier (South Africa), Norberto Rivera Carrera* (Mexico): 20/1
Antonio María Rouco Varela (Spain), Cardinal Sean Brady (Ireland), Philippe Barbarin (France): 33/1
Cormac Murphy-O’Connor* (UK): 40/1
Keith O Brien (Scotland), Cardinal Dario Castrillion Hoyos (Colombia), Geraldo Majella Agnelo* (Brazil), Cardinal Odilo Scherer (Sao Paulo), Lopez Rodriguez (Dominican Republic), Timothy Dolan (USA): 50/1 Godfried Danneels (Belgium), Cardinal George Pell* (Australia), Cardinal Walter Kasper* (Germany): 66/1
Francis George* (USA), Cardinal Amigo Vallejo (Spain): 80/1
Cardinal Carlo Maria Matini (Italy): 100/1 Silvano Piovanelli (Italy): 125/1
Father Dougal Maguire (Craggy Island), Bono (Ireland): 1000/1

Meanwhile, Live Bets Direct is still waiting to cash in on that “Who visits Ireland first?” prop bet…

– written by Os Davis