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For proper electoral politics junkies like yours truly (not to mention bookmakers Bet365 and Paddy Power, among others), no soon is too soon to start discussing the possibilities for Decision 2012, a.k.a. the next US presidential election. Today, a brief look at the bookies’ lines on the outcome of the Republican primaries.

Hail to the future chief!

Since the last sitting president not to earn renomination from his party was the marked failure Franklin Pierce in 1856, you’re not betting on Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden unless you’re betting on assassination or serious personal tragedy, and that’s a shitstorm of bad karma. With an incumbent president most likely to represent the Democratic Party (Bet365 has Barack Obama as 8/11 favorite for reelection; PaddyPower has him at 4/5), the key question for betting on either Republican or general-election victor is essentially the same: How’s Obama doing?

After all, the truth is party leaders know when their candidate and/or party is looking at decisive defeat, often well in advance of the election, particularly in cases of sitting presidents seeking reelection. Think of 1984 when the Democrats put forth Walter Mondale, Jimmy Carter’s vice president, against the unbeatable Ronald Reagan. The head Dems advanced an old statesman, coupled him on the ticket with the first female mainstream vice-presidential candidate, and gambled that up-and-comer Gary Hart of Colorado could keep it in his pants until 1988 when he might have a shot at the big prize. (He couldn’t; wonder what the line was on that one…)

Think 1996 when the GOP was faced with the Bill Clinton reelection juggernaut. Rather than waste an attractive Baby Boomer candidate – for when was the last time a losing presidential nominee even sniffed the top of the ticket again? – the Republicans “rewarded” its elder statesman and then created what would have been the oldest president-vice president combination in history with Jack Kemp on the bottom half.

Should Obama’s popularity remain high – and this early in, it’s difficult to see him dropping enough poll points to make Election 2012 very close – you should consider some old-guard types like Mitt Romney (5/1 at Bet365; 5/1 at PaddyPower.com), Fred Thompson (28/1 and 16/1), and even Newt Gingrich (20/1 and 12/1). Tim Pawlenty (10/1 at Bet365; no odds offered at Paddy Power) is in a bit of a gray area in terms of resume; at 52 in 2012, he’ll still be young enough to be perceived of as dynamic, but as a rare Republican governor from *very* liberal Minnesota, a popular Obama could conceivably cause Pawlenty to lose in his own state, a clear recipe for disaster – just ask Al Gore of Tennessee.

A particularly attractive bet if you’re reckoning Obama’ll have this one in the bag by mid-2011 is former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (10/1 and 7/1). With the Republican Party in need of a PR reboot, party leaders could have the TV-experienced Huckabee play the folksy conservative in hopes of giving conservativism a friendlier face for 2016. (Think Barry Goldwater in 1964.) Plus, Huckabee’s 2008 campaign was wildly successful, providing him a very nice springboard for 2012. Condoleezza Rice (10/1 and 33/1) might make a decent pick in a prospective Obama blowout in an attempt to sell the right-wing way to the female and African-American demographics as well.

So what if Obama’s on the outs with the American public in four years? Hey, stranger things have happened and after all, John McCain was essentially even with Obama in polls until he oddly decided to publicly announce that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong.”

Near the top of the table and in the upswing of their political careers are Utah governor Jon Huntsman (15/2 and 8/1) and Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal (10/1 and 12/1). Working against Huntsman is his Mormon faith − Remember all the stuff about Obama being a Moslem? Imagine the negative press here – but a big plus is his experience as an ambassador to Singapore. Jindal, meanwhile, was reportedly short-listed among McCain’s veep choices and one can easily see why: When elected in 2007, Jindal was the youngest governor of the US; he was only the second Indian-American ever elected to the House of Representatives; and he’s just the ninth man of non-European descent to become state governor since the Civil War.

The only minus to Jindal bet for 2012 is also his biggest plus: At just 41, party leaders surely figure they can wait on President (or Vice President) Jindal for a while. Besides, the better post-Katrina Louisiana looks, the better Jindal’s chances.

Finally, there’s that most polarizing figure of Election 2008 and the Republican Party’s heir apparent, Sarah Palin (6/1 and 3/1). No candidate has energized a depressed GOP since Ronald Reagan, and no potential candidate for 2012 needs Obama to slump more than Palin. While the Alaska governor’s supporters have become something of a political force since the failed ’08 bid, with “Team Sarah” most recently attempting to halt the nomination of Kansas governor (and former rumored shortlist choice for the Democratic VP nom) Kathleen Sebelius to the post of Health and Human Services secretary.

Of course, the former Miss Wasilla can wait ‘til 2016 – when she would be just 48 years old – for a realistic shot at the big chair. No bookmaker is offering Election 2016 odds at present, which is unfortunate because few things have seemed more inevitable in US politics then the coming of President Palin.