Eurovision Song Contest Odds, part III: Ireland vs. The World
No country has a tradition at the Eurovision Song Contest like that of Ireland. Not only does the Emerald Isle boast a record seven wins in the competition – all since 1970 – but the country’s run from 1990 to 1997 of four wins and two second-place finishes is perhaps best compared in domination to Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls in their heyday. Though this decade, Ireland has gone without so much as a Eurovision silver, but the Irish entry continues to yearly be considered a threat to take it all.
Naturally, the world’s craziest bookmaker is happy to fan the flames of green nationalism in their own special way vis-à-vis the 2009 Eurovision Song Contest. In Paddy Power’s Ireland Head 2 Head props, punters may speculate on the Irish finish against the entries from the UK, Spain, Russia, Poland, Croatia, Slovakia, Serbia and Latvia. (Since the Os Man has already opined on the Spanish and Russian entries, these won’t be reconsidered here. Suffice to say they’ll both finish higher than Ireland’s.)
This year, Ireland’s entry is a number cleverly entitled “Et Cetera” and is performed by Sinead Mulvey and Black Daisy. Equal parts 80s girl band and 90s riot grrrrrrrrrrrrl sensibilities, “Et Cetera” is one of the few straight-up rock ‘n’ roll songs in this year’s competition; it’s also infectious on a level of Norway’s “Fairy Tale” and Turkey’s “Büm Tek Tek.”
Now tell me you’ll be getting that tune out of your head any time soon. You’re welcome.
The strengths of “Et Cetera” may simultaneously prove its weaknesses. After all, the song is a rock ‘n’ roll number in a competition ruled by pop and increasingly influenced by American hip hop and R&B. While “Et Cetera” will easily win out over any number of weak ballads (and whoa, there are a few this year), something completely different rarely takes this contest. Care to reiterate with last year’s carbon-copy winner? Click here.
Also firmly from the “Still Rock and Roll To Me” department is Latvia’s Intars Busulis. The group’s “Probka” shows its rock roots with pride, a song clearly influenced by the Police, Rush, about 1,000 hair bands from the 80s, and essentially anyone else you can conjure up from a classic rock radio station’s playlist.
Here, the Os Man suspects those taking a good old-fashioned rocker will favor the guitar-slamming chicks over the guitar-slamming boys; cite the edge as due to a fresher sound and English lyrics.
The Croatian entry, a romantic Meditterranean-sounding duet entitled “Lijepa Tena” performed by Igor Cukrov and Andrea Susnjara, is certain to garner lots of votes from the romantic song-lovers out there. A comparison of “Lijepa Tena” to “Et Cetera” is a serious apples-and-oranges matchup, but you’d have to believe that the base for Croatia is potentially lots wider than for Ireland’s genre piece.
Meanwhile, Croatia’s neighbors Serbia have taken the utterly opposite tack, bringing to competition a fun, peppy, accordion-based tune in Marko Kon and Milan Nikolic’ “Cipela.” Though the 50/1 odds for these guys to take the whole thing may be too generous if anything, Kon’s excellent voice, cool demeanor, and fantabulous hairstyle will make these guys dangerous in the first round. There’s no way you’re taking Ireland against this three minutes of fun.
The Slovakian entry is a duet entitled “Let’ Tmou” as performed by Kamil Mikulcík and Nela Pocisková. This one’s impossible to gauge and could sneak through to the final round based on voting heavily weighted to popular opinion. “Let’ Tmou” does have a pair of sterling voices to its credit, but Mikulcík and Pocisková have the stage presence of kapustnica.
Last and least in the Ireland vs. Europe faceoffs are the UK and Polish entries. Suitably longshot (Paddy Power has the former going off at 18/1, the latter at 125/1) entries, both are generic ballads indistinguishable save for chanteuse’ accent. Don’t believe me? Here, watch these.
Ireland over Poland seems an easy bet, with the worst-case scenario seemingly a push with “Et Cetera” not escaping the first round. On the other hand, A scintillating case may be made for UK over Ireland for at least three reasons: 1) “My Time” gets automatic entry into the final round because, um, the UK is a big country; 2) international popular-opinion polls (no, the Os Man won’t provide links – can’t give away all my secrets, you know) show “Et Cetera” getting smoked by “My Time”; and 3) as previously stated, “Et Cetera” is essentially a genre song in this competition.
Interestingly enough, Paddy Power actually favors Ireland (4/6) over the UK (11/10) in this matchup. Danger, Will Robinson, danger! Stay the clef away from this one.
The Os Man’s advice: Right now, you can take Spain (1/1), Russia (4/6), and Serbia (4/6) over Ireland; plus Ireland over Poland (1/5) and Latvia (1/5). For potential upsets, consider Croatia (7/2) and Slovakia (3/1) over Ireland.

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