How do you say, “Damn, what a scorcher” in German?
“Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.” – Mark Twain
Excuse me, Mr. Clemens, but was that “get” or “bet”? Intertops online bookmaker thinks the latter, with its newest proposition bet, the simply entitled “Highest Temperature in Berlin in July 2009.”
The table neatly reflects the extremes of modern-day meteorology (Remember, folks, it’s more accurately described as “climate change,” not “global warming”):
Hot enough for ya?
29.9⁰ Celsius (approximately 85.8⁰ Fahrenheit) or lower: 4/1
37⁰ Celsius (98.6⁰F) or more: 13/2
36-36.9⁰ Celsius (96.8-98.4⁰F): 7/1
30-30.9⁰ Celsius (86.0-87.6⁰F): 8/1
31-31.9⁰ Celsius (87.8-89.4⁰F): 8/1
32-32.9⁰ Celsius (89.6-91.2⁰F): 8/1
33-33.9⁰ Celsius (91.4-93.0⁰F): 8/1
34-34.9⁰ Celsius (93.2-94.8⁰F): 8/1
35-35.9⁰ Celsius (95.0-96.6⁰F): 8/1
Basically, your thinking on this one is going to come down to how much you believe in the cyclical nature of, well, nature, particularly since homo sapiens has been mucking about with weather patterns on a massive scale.
See, the reason weather figures in Western and Central Europe will be particularly watched (and surely hyped as well) is because it’s 2009. Flashbacks follow.
• In 2006, a July heat wave smoked much of Europe from France to Hungary; Wikipedia notes that Berlin saw “an average temperature of 25°C (were recorded (7°C from normal)” and that Germany in fact inexperienced its all-time hottest month since recording of such statistics began.
• In 2003, extreme July heat killed some 300 folks in Germany and the country’s all-time record of 104.7⁰F (40.4⁰C) was recorded; unofficially recorded was the 106⁰F (41⁰C) felt at Mannheim.
Presidential response to global warming
So will the wave of nigh-unbearable heat and humidity return to plague The Continent (and consequently for betting purposes at Intertops, will Berlin’s 2006 record of 37⁰C be topped)?
Intertops is offering this prop bet until June 14th, which should provide an excellent opportunity to eliminate some possibilities for those with faith in patterns: Both summer heat waves became notable by mid-June. As July is Berlin (and Germany)’s hottest month traditionally by about 1.5⁰C over June and August. In Deutschland, a hot June often indicates hotter July.
On the cusp of June, the weather in Europe has been well cooler than average. With the typical July in Berlin seeing an average temperature of 24⁰C, a maximum of 29.5⁰C seems difficult to reach, despite dreary May indications.
On the other hand, if climate change – again, not global warming – is most often expressed in meteorological variation, 29.5⁰C or lower suddenly seems OK again. Consider that 2006 heat wave in reverse, with Germany again getting weather 7⁰C off normal, but with the mercury going in the opposite direction. If you’re having a summer of average temperature at 18⁰C, 29.5⁰C is suddenly a positive scorcher.
The advice: Sit this one out for another week-and-a-half to two weeks. Live Bets Direct will be revisiting this one soon. Unless some non-metaphorical winds of change blow before then.
Comments are closed.