Paddy Power’s papal pop-in propositions
Claiming the boss position on Paddy Power’s top proposition bets this week are “Pope’s Second Coming” specials; no, ol’ Mr. Ratzinger isn’t preparing for a self-resurrection or anything similar. Rather, what’s got the Paddy posting odds is a story broken last weekend that the papal entourage would be visiting Britain.
The reason for the papal pop-in prop stems from the ascension of Britain’s Cardinal John Henry Newman to sainthood. Pope Benedict XVI has reportedly all but confirmed a visit to the area to oversee the as-yet unscheduled beatification ceremony. According to the Daily Telegraph via The Hindu newspaper, “details of the papal visit are still under discussion, but some cities being considered include London, Birmingham, Oxford, Edinburgh, Armagh and Dublin.”
Particularly amazing is the possibility that Benedict XVI would become just the second pope to visit Britain since that nasty business with King Henry VIII back in the 1530s.
As for the bets, the easiest of Paddy Power’s three offerings has to be, “Where will the Pope visit first?”
London: 4/6
Birmingham: 2/1
Belfast: 6/1
Dublin: 10/1
Edinburgh: 14/1
Glasgow: 16/1
Cardiff: 20/1
Manchester: 33/1
Though starting in Belfast seems plausible, the pope has often stated his admiration of and desire to visit Oxford which, last we checked, was in London. No reason to cover Belfast, then, except with the absolute minimum.
Betting on “When will the Pope visit [the Republic of] Ireland?” seems pretty simple, too. The table currently looks like the following.
2009: 10/1
2010: 2/1
2011: 7/2
2012: 4/1
2013: 6/1
2014: 8/1
Later than 2014 or never: 3/1
The Os Man suggests that the two heavy favorites – 2010 and never – are the way to go. Truth is, Newman will be beatified by the pope, but it seems unlikely that the Vatican bureaucracy could actually arrange things for both ceremony and entourage lodging in Ireland by December 31.
Meanwhile, Pope Benedict will be 82 next month, a number that puts him way ahead of the papal life-expectancy curve no matter how it is measured. The average age of popes elected since 1700 is just over 65, with average age at death 78 years. The two popes who were models of longevity in the 20th century, namely Pius XII and John Paul II, um, left office, aged 82 and 84, respectively. The point here is: Don’t go anywhere near long-term bets with Benedict XVI. On this proposition bet, if you cover 2010, 2011 and never, you should at least break even.
More scintillating is the prop, “Who will visit [the Republic of] Ireland first?” The list goes:
Pope Benedict XVI: 4/6
Barack Obama: 9/4
The Queen of England: 4/1
Any two, jointly: 100/1
While the queen could take a jaunt to the ‘Isle at any time, it seems, she doesn’t travel quite so much these days. Since Obama recently seriously yukked it up with Ireland prime minister/nude model Brian Cowen at the White House, his people probably informally promised Cowen’s people a return visit.
The Os Man reckons Obama’ll be sipping the Guinness by mid-2011, so the race is on; the Prez would make for a pretty good investment at 9/4. Remember as Wesley Snipes once said, “Always bet on black.”

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