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Whoever said a little schadenfreude couldn’t be profitable? Certainly not Paddy Power online bookmakers, who are offering a titillating sign-of-the-times novelty bet entitled “End of year unemployment in the UK.”

That’s right. Guess how many folks are officially on the dole on December 31, 2009, according to the national statistics office and you could double your money or better.
Paddy Power’s table looks as follows:

2,700,001 - 3,000,000: 1/1
3,000,001 - 3,300,000: 7/4
2,400,000 - 2,700,000: 5/2
3,300,001 - 3,600,000: 4/1
Under 2.4 million: 6/1
Over 3.6 million: 6/1

Now consider the bleak, bleak statistics, presented in chronological order of release.

• On the last Monday of last year – December 29 – the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, an organization which “represents managers and personnel staff,” releases analysis that predicts the loss of 600,000 jobs in the UK in 2009. (Actually a positive over a February 2008 forecast by research consultancy Capital Economics, which had the UK dumping 700,000 jobs by 2009’s end.)

• By the end of February, the number of UK unemployed was reported at 2.1 million, an increase of 177,000 over the previous three months. This represented a 6.7% unemployment rate.

• At the end of May, government officials were willing to admit that the then-unemployment rate of 7.2% (or 2.26 million citizens) was the highest recorded in the UK since July 1997 – and this was actually a better ratio than had been forecast. However, these numbers was later upped to 7.6% and 2.381 million unemployed.

• Finally, figures for July’s end released on September 15th mostly ran with the lead “Unemployment continued to rise in the UK.” As of July 31, 7.9% of the potential UK workforce – 2.47-plus million, nearly 750,000 more than a year previously – was jobless. Worse yet, the increase of 210,000 more on the dole in the quarter ending July 2008 was 10,000 more than expected and job vacancies are also down.

• And the numbers for those sitting in unemployable purgatory haven’t even taken what might be the biggest hit of the year thus far: namely, what one economist called “the unemployment time bomb” comprised of some “600,000 graduates that are expected to join the labour market in July 2009, which could result in a surge of unemployment of as many as 250,000 in a single [month].” The same expert reckons the 3,000,000 barrier is toast.

So. If Live Bets Direct writes that this Paddy Power proposition bet looks to be an easy one, is that optimistic or pessimistic? Because from where we’re sitting (on a slightly less depressed Continental nation), this prop looks easy… You’ll definitely be covering 3.0 to 3.3 million and 3.3 to 3.6 million (if you bet double on the former than the latter, you’ll profit on the total wagering by at least 66.6%). If you’re seriously pessimistic about the mess Mr. Blair helped create and Mr. Brown helps propagate, throw a few quid on “Over 3.6 million” and pray you’re not queuing up at a government employee’s desk next month.

Oh, and if you win, don’t brag. Just buy the house a round and commiserate.