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On a day the world (over)reacts to the official judgment that Michael Jackson’s death was in fact a homicide, Live Bets Direct naturally looks at a fascinating – and probably quite prescient – King of Pop-centric novelty bet.

Mariah: "I'm bad, i'm bad, really really bad..."

Entitled “Top The Charts” within Paddy Power’s “Michael Jackson specials” section, this proposition is open for business in addressing the question, “Who will hit No. 1 on the UK BBC Radio 1 chart with a remake of a Michael Jackson song?” As is typical of the Paddy, lots of jokey suggestions make the list of 23 names posted (Amy Winehouse, indeed), so let’s consider the serious possibilities only. The reasonably-edited list might look something like so:

Janet Jackson/The Jacksons: 4/6
Justin Timberlake: 6/1
Mariah Carey: 8/1
Usher: 10/1
U2: 18/1
Whitney Houston: 20/1

(And I’m not particularly buying Justin Timberlake, either, really.)

Jackson, Timberlake: "The girl was bad, the girl was dangerous..."

The so-obvious-it’s-painful favorite of Janet and/or Family is verrrrry tempting, indeed, particularly if Tito et al get down to cutting something quick while millions are in Michael-heavy nostalgia mode. On the other hand, the Jackson Five hasn’t been heard from since Mick Jagger dropped in and Janet Jackson is now well more associated with the term “wardrobe malfunction” than “What Have You Done For Me Lately?” or anything music-related, for that matter. First to record an M.J. remake, sure. First to hit number one on the charts? Welllllllllllllllllll…

The best bet on this table? Usher all the way. One can easily imagine the dude bucking for Grammys six and seven (for “Best Album” and “Best Song,” for sure) whilst donating all proceeds from the sale of his “Beat It” remake (with turntable solo by Terminator X in lieu of Eddie Van Halen; or hell, just break Eddie out of mothballs) to any number of philanthropic organizations which with he’s associated. Usher’s your man.

You gotta like Mariah Carey and Whitney Houston here, too; Whitney for the comeback opportunity presented to a pop diva who was active during the M.J. reign. Plus, as Jermaine Jackson was a co-producer on Houston’s debut album, well, there’s that connection. Mariah, meanwhile, actually recorded and released a remake of the Jackson 5’s “I’ll Be There” back in 1992 and performed the song at the July 7 memorial for Michael.

Other artists suggested by Paddy Power include the following, though others are surely “available upon request.” And remember, the no. 1 song in question “Must happen by 2012.” If the planet doesn’t come to a cataclysmic end before then, of course.

Winehouse: "Leave me alone..."

Leona Lewis: 8/1
Alexandra Burke: 10/1
Rihanna: 12/1
Ne-Yo: 12/1
Fall Out Boy: 14/1
Beyonce: 14/1
Take That: 18/1
Diana Vickers: 18/1
Jamie Foxx: 20/1
Elton John: 25/1
George Michael: 33/1
Amy Winehouse: 40/1
Boyzone: 50/1
3T: 66/1
Prince Michael: 80/1
Slash: 100/1